Verisk’s latest quarterly property data, read closely — fewer claims, bigger checks, and a modeled-loss benchmark at a record high. Every figure is cited to its source where it appears.
The U.S. property insurance market is living a paradox in 2026: claim counts keep falling, yet the average claim keeps getting more expensive. Verisk’s latest quarterly property data shows Q2 2026 could become one of the most costly quarters for insurers on an average property claims cost basis — even though the number of officially designated catastrophe events has held steady (Artemis.bm). Verisk’s summary: “Property and reconstruction spend is consolidating into fewer, higher cost claims.”
Update — October 13, 2026. Verisk has put its first loss estimate on Hurricane Isaias: $1 billion to $2 billion in insured onshore property losses (Artemis.bm). That is an event estimate, a different Verisk product from the quarterly severity data below — but it lands on the same balance sheet, in the same quarter that average claim severity is tracking toward record highs.
What Verisk found
The Q2 2026 numbers, as reported from Verisk’s quarterly property report (Artemis.bm):
- Claim assignment volumes fell to one of the lowest Q2 levels in recent years — down 12.21% from Q2 2025 and 13.05% below the five-year average, extending a four-year decline.
- The decline is concentrated in non-catastrophe claims: non-CAT assignments down 18.65% vs. the five-year average, CAT assignments down just 4.29%.
- CAT claims are now 43% of Q2 volume, up from 34% five years ago — even though the number of PCS® designated events has held steady.
- Average severity currently sits at $17,085, down 10.77% from Q2 2025 but only 2.88% below the five-year average — “tracking toward the highest quarterly level in recent years.”
That $17,085 is almost certainly not the final number: severity data matures over two to three months as larger, more complex claims complete and return to Verisk’s XactAnalysis system with higher replacement-cost values, so it generally appears artificially low during the “immature” period (Verisk Q1 2026 Quarterly Property Report, verisk.com). The Q1 precedent: initially reported at $16,079, it has since matured 13.1% to $18,185, beating last quarter’s projection (Artemis.bm).
Apply a historical maturation rate and Q2 2026 lands near $18,794; apply Q1’s stronger rate and it lands above $19,400 — the highest quarterly average in recent years. Both are projections and will move as data matures (Artemis.bm). The Q3 2025 edition showed the same pattern — assignments down 28.5% YoY while mature severity ran $17,258–$18,431 (Insurance Journal); the volume decline has run since 2023.
Why severity rises while designated events are stable
“Stable designated cat events” means the count of catastrophes formally designated by PCS — Verisk’s Property Claim Services unit, whose serial-number designations are the industry’s standard event definition — has held roughly steady. But event counts aren’t cost exposure. Four mechanisms explain the divergence:
1. Mix shift. Non-CAT volume collapsed (-18.65% vs. the five-year average) while CAT volume barely moved (-4.29%), making the remaining book mechanically more cat-heavy: 43% of Q2 2026 volume versus 34% five years ago (Artemis.bm). Catastrophe claims cost more, so the average rises with no exceptional single event.
2. Unit-cost inflation, led by labor. Combined U.S. labor and material costs are up 4% year over year — and accelerated in each month of Q2 (Artemis.bm). Verisk’s Q1 2026 report details it: total reconstruction costs +3.4% YoY, concrete masons +15.39% annually (led all trades), lumber -2.32%, fuel +42.70% (verisk.com).
3. Severity maturation. The first number always understates reality: Q4 2025 climbed 10.15% post-report; Q1 2026 climbed 13.1% (verisk.com). Pricing off the immature number is pricing off a discount that doesn’t exist.
4. Roof replacement severity, independent of storm counts. Verisk’s 2026 U.S. Roof Report: average residential roof replacement cost hit $17,631 in 2025 — 33% above the prior four-year average — even though overall claims volume fell roughly 20%. Everyday wind and hail events, many below catastrophe thresholds, kept driving severity (GlobeNewswire via crweworld.com).
Two often-cited drivers — litigation and social inflation, and building-code changes — were not quantified in the sources behind this piece, so they are noted here rather than argued.
A related but different Verisk signal: the $171B modeled-loss benchmark
Three weeks earlier, Verisk’s annual 2026 Global Modelled Catastrophe Losses Report set the industry’s average-year preparedness benchmark at $171 billion, up $19 billion — the highest estimate Verisk has reported (GlobeNewswire).
Do not conflate the two products:
- The $171B is a forward-looking modeled average annual loss (AAL) — a cat-model output driven by exposure growth, rising reconstruction costs, and development in catastrophe-prone areas; a long-term benchmark, not a single-year forecast (Reinsurance News). It rose despite no U.S. hurricane landfalls for the first time in a decade.
- The quarterly property report is backward-looking actual claims data — real assignment volumes and real average severity from XactAnalysis. It shows the mechanism on the ground: fewer, more expensive, more cat-heavy claims.
Together: the modeled benchmark is rising because the unit economics of claims are rising — and the quarterly data proves it isn’t just model theory. As Verisk Catastrophe and Risk Solutions president Rob Newbold put it: “A quiet hurricane season can lead markets to respond as if risk has eased: rates soften, insurers keep more risk on their own books, and more capital competes to write new business. But 2025 reminds us that the underlying risk landscape has changed” (GlobeNewswire). For the sixth straight year, global insured catastrophe losses exceeded $100 billion — driven not by hurricanes and earthquakes but by record wildfires and severe thunderstorm activity (Reinsurance News).
What this means for 2027 renewal pricing conversations
- The “benign year” discount is a mirage. Headline losses look tame, tempting buyers to expect softer pricing — but AAL just hit a record $171B and actual severity is tracking toward record highs. Reinsurers anchoring on AAL won’t concede the risk got cheaper.
- Watch attachments and aggregate deductibles, not just rate. Severity plus inflation means industry losses could “ramp up more quickly than before” when major events occur — and ILS managers should weigh these trends “when negotiating key contract terms and features such as attachments and aggregate deductibles” (Artemis.bm). The 2027 negotiation is about structure as much as price.
- Reserving is happening right now. “Lower claim counts, a CAT heavier mix, and increasing severities are colliding with rising unit costs, especially labor, right as they finalize second half reserving, reinsurance, and vendor strategies” (Artemis.bm). Reserves set today flow into reinsurance demand and program structure at 1/1.
Regional note: the Midwest was the Q2 hotspot — Illinois and Ohio surged on severe convective storms and hail; Kansas and Iowa jumped 73% and 95% (Artemis.bm). Frequency perils keep generating widespread multi-community damage instead of single headline events — the pattern behind six straight $100B+ years (Reinsurance News).
Sources: all figures cited inline, linked where they appear. Projections are labeled as projections; Verisk’s gated quarterly report figures are as reported by Artemis.bm.